Harris is polling slightly ahead of Trump, how might El Paso voting numbers differ?

EL PASO, Texas (KVIA) -- In the lead-up to President Joe Biden dropping out of the upcoming presidential race and Vice President Kamala Harris starting her own bid, there's one word you've probably head over and over: polling. To help make sense of current polling numbers, as well as how El Pasoans tend to vote, El Paso Community College Government Professor Dr. Amber Archuleta-Lucero visited the ABC-7 studio for a live interview.

According to the El Paso County Elections Department, El Pasoans voted overwhelmingly for Biden in 2020. He received 178,126 votes from El Paso County, more than double of Trump's 84,331 votes. When breaking it down by county precinct, areas favoring Biden saw moderate to stark leads in votes. Most red precincts, barring one in which only one voter reported, saw only narrow preferences for Former President Donald Trump. Among these areas, only Precinct 8 saw a lead of over 100 votes.

These results suggest El Paso votes significantly more blue than the national average. In the national results for the 2020 election, Biden received 51.3% of the vote compared to Trump's 46.8%.

Recent polling numbers come with the obvious issue of Biden dropping out of the race. Some recent polls, however, now include Harris, who has secured enough delegates to potentially gain the Democratic nomination.

In a poll from Reuters and Ipsos released yesterday, Harris holds a narrow lead at 44% against Trump's 42%

Even with the narrow polling ranges, Dr. Archuleta-Lucero believes previous support for Biden will translate to voters coming out for Harris.

"For the most part the Texas-Mexico border is blue," Dr. Archuleta-Lucero said. "I think that Vice President Harris is going to have significant support here on the border."

Harris has been outspoken on reproductive issues over her time as vice president. Dr. Archuleta-Lucero said the vice president had been able to bring a "new energy" to the discussion on reproductive rights during her tenure.

"I think her presence might allow El Paso voters to take a fresher look at issues that have been prevalent for us for many years," Dr. Archuleta-Lucero said.

Dr. Archuleta-Lucero didn't feel the same way on immigration, however. Harris worked to address root causes of mass migration to the United States. Republicans have taken to painting Harris as a "Border Czar," despite her never being assigned to head immigration policy.

"I think this may be her weakest area," Dr. Archuleta-Lucero said. "This will be a true telling point of her immigration record, what she's done, how many times she's visited, and what she intends to do as it relates to the border."

The next step for Vice President Harris to secure her nomination comes on Aug. 1, when delegates are likely to begin voting for the next nominee.